Healthcare Watchlist (technical) - November 2015

Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) - my valuation model says 250% upside for DCVax-L alone

*** Note - I have revised my price target to $27 per share as of Oct. 2015.
I added a 50% discount factor to my model (increasing short interest)
I also increased my estimate for EU patient numbers. ***

My price target for NWBO is $41 which presents around 250% upside  This valuation only considers DCVax-L for GBM. I will place a value on DCVax-Direct once more information is available about their planned Phase 2 trials.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method to generate my share price target.
Below is my Model with assumptions:

I have discussed NWBO and its cancer vaccine platform twice this year with Forbes.com. Check my posts for the details here & here.

I continue to see NWBO as an excellent investment opportunity with over 250% upside potential.



Disclosure - NWBO is a core holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL AVXLD) - my valuation model shows over 700% upside potential

**Note - I have updated my valuation, cutting my price target to $8 after viewing initial PH2b data.


My price target for AVXLD is $83 which presents over 700% upside (7-bagger).
This investment idea has an excellent risk/reward profile.

My valuation only considers AVXLD's lead drug candidate Anavex 2-73 for treating Alzheimer's Disease.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my Model with assumptions:

Disclosure - AVXLD is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Healthcare Watchlist - 2015 October (technical)

Healthcare stocks have sold-off heavily over the past 2 months. The IBB Biotech ETF is down 25% from its mid July highs.

This sector's sell-off began around the time of the Chinese market decline, then Hilary's tweet pushed it down further. I do not consider these good reasons for a sell-off and suspect this will be a short term event.  

I continue to be bullish about this sector even though its short-term prospects are uncertain right now.

Below is my latest technical Watchlist -

Mannkind Corp. (MNKD) - my model shows over 250% upside

My valuation model gives MNKD a target share price of $12.40 which gives it 258% upside.

Afrezza is an excellent new treatment for diabetes patients. Afrezza is mealtime rapid acting insulin that is taken through an inhaler removing the need for patients to receive insulin by injecting themselves with needles.

Sales of Afrezza have been slow so far but they will likely pick-up quickly as more patients become aware of this more convenient treatment option. ­Patients are also used to controlling their insulin levels with injections so they would be reluctant to quickly change over to a new treatment.

Mannkind/Sanofi are beginning a direct to consumer advertising campaign which will help raise awareness of Afrezza and boost its sales.  

Early Afrezza users have been very positive about the new treatment going by anecdotal twitter testaments. Their positive experiences should help others also change over to this needleless option.

MNKD is trading at $3.50 levels down from highs of $10.50 around 15 months ago. At this price level I find MNKD a very attractive long-term risk/reward play.

Below is my valuation model with assumptions, I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.

Disclosure - MNKD is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Healthcare Stocks Watchlist (technical) - Sept 2015

TG Therapeutics (TGTX) - my valuation model shows 120% upside

My price target for TGTX is $32 which presents around 120% upside.

This valuation only considers TGTX's lead program, the Genuine Trial (TG1101 & Ibrutinib combo) for treating high risk CLL.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my Model with assumptions:

I have discussed TGTX and their blood cancer treatments earlier this year with Forbes.com. You can check that interview at my post here.

I continue to see TGTX as an excellent long-term investment opportunity with over 120% upside potential.



Disclosure - TGTX is a core holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.




* slide from TGTX presentation -