Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) - my valuation model says 250% upside for DCVax-L alone

*** Note - I have revised my price target to $27 per share as of Oct. 2015.
I added a 50% discount factor to my model (increasing short interest)
I also increased my estimate for EU patient numbers. ***

My price target for NWBO is $41 which presents around 250% upside  This valuation only considers DCVax-L for GBM. I will place a value on DCVax-Direct once more information is available about their planned Phase 2 trials.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method to generate my share price target.
Below is my Model with assumptions:

I have discussed NWBO and its cancer vaccine platform twice this year with Forbes.com. Check my posts for the details here & here.

I continue to see NWBO as an excellent investment opportunity with over 250% upside potential.



Disclosure - NWBO is a core holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL AVXLD) - my valuation model shows over 700% upside potential

**Note - I have updated my valuation, cutting my price target to $8 after viewing initial PH2b data.


My price target for AVXLD is $83 which presents over 700% upside (7-bagger).
This investment idea has an excellent risk/reward profile.

My valuation only considers AVXLD's lead drug candidate Anavex 2-73 for treating Alzheimer's Disease.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my Model with assumptions:

Disclosure - AVXLD is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Healthcare Watchlist - 2015 October (technical)

Healthcare stocks have sold-off heavily over the past 2 months. The IBB Biotech ETF is down 25% from its mid July highs.

This sector's sell-off began around the time of the Chinese market decline, then Hilary's tweet pushed it down further. I do not consider these good reasons for a sell-off and suspect this will be a short term event.  

I continue to be bullish about this sector even though its short-term prospects are uncertain right now.

Below is my latest technical Watchlist -