Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL AVXLD) - my valuation model shows over 700% upside potential

**Note - I have updated my valuation, cutting my price target to $8 after viewing initial PH2b data.


My price target for AVXLD is $83 which presents over 700% upside (7-bagger).
This investment idea has an excellent risk/reward profile.

My valuation only considers AVXLD's lead drug candidate Anavex 2-73 for treating Alzheimer's Disease.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my Model with assumptions:









Disclosure - AVXLD is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 30, 2015 at 11:45 AM

    Interesting price target for this promising company. Do you have any approximate timeframe in mind with that?

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  2. UnknownOctober 30, 2015 at 12:21 PM

    Hi!
    My price target is a present value. I have used a 40% estimate for clinical success based on the data I have see so far. This is the main factor driving my share price target.
    At AVXL's current price, Wall Street is giving 2-73 around a 5% chance of clinical success. Probably because AD is historically difficult to treat. I think they are being too conservative.

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