Friday, September 25, 2015

Mannkind Corp. (MNKD) - my model shows over 250% upside



My valuation model gives MNKD a target share price of $12.40 which gives it 258% upside.

Afrezza is an excellent new treatment for diabetes patients. Afrezza is mealtime rapid acting insulin that is taken through an inhaler removing the need for patients to receive insulin by injecting themselves with needles.

Sales of Afrezza have been slow so far but they will likely pick-up quickly as more patients become aware of this more convenient treatment option. ­Patients are also used to controlling their insulin levels with injections so they would be reluctant to quickly change over to a new treatment.
Mannkind/Sanofi are beginning a direct to consumer advertising campaign which will help raise awareness of Afrezza and boost its sales.  
Early Afrezza users have been very positive about the new treatment going by anecdotal twitter testaments. Their positive experiences should help others also change over to this needleless option.

MNKD is trading at $3.50 levels down from highs of $10.50 around 15 months ago. At this price level I find MNKD a very attractive long-term risk/reward play.

Below is my valuation model with assumptions, I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.




Disclosure - MNKD is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Healthcare Stocks Watchlist (technical) - Sept 2015


Saturday, September 19, 2015

TG Therapeutics (TGTX) - my valuation model shows 120% upside

My price target for TGTX is $32 which presents around 120% upside.

This valuation only considers TGTX's lead program, the Genuine Trial (TG1101 & Ibrutinib combo) for treating high risk CLL.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my Model with assumptions:



I have discussed TGTX and their blood cancer treatments earlier this year with Forbes.com. You can check that interview at my post here.

I continue to see TGTX as an excellent long-term investment opportunity with over 120% upside potential.



Disclosure - TGTX is a core holding of my Marketocracy Fund. This Fund is available for investment at http://www.marketocracy.com/managers.php?manager=781
Follow the links.
I do not short stocks.





* slide from TGTX presentation -