Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Newly diagnosed Glioblastoma (GBM) survival prospects





This is a survival comparator chart of various treatments of patients with newly diagnosed GBM.

UCLA's patient survival curve has a thick tail meaning a larger proportion of their patients have better long-term survival prospects. The beginning of their curve is similar to Stupp's curve (standard of care). 

Optune, a medical device, has the strongest survival curve other than the 4 to 5 year time period where UCLA is stronger.
The treatments on the chart all have unique inclusion/exclusion trial criteria so it’s not quite comparing apples to apples but it still can be used as a guide of what we can expect. I adjusted UCLA's curve by moving it all back 3 months to simulate measuring survival from the beginning of treatment rather than beginning of diagnosis.

10 comments:

  1. December 7, 2017, Branko I couldn't help but notice you sold a sizeable amount of your NWBO holdings. Could you please comment (briefly) on what events lead you to sell these?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Anonymous!

    There may have been a glitch at Marketocracy that's shown a lower share count for my NWBO holding.
    I have actually increased my share count.

    Here's a live snapshot of my model fund holdings -

    Symbol Price Shares
    NWBO 0.2488 4728778
    TGTX 8.25 24062
    SGMO 17.2 5484
    ACAD 30.09 2224
    ADAP 7.98 7864
    OMER 20.15 2594
    MNKD 3.09 15957
    CRMD 0.5499 68639
    DVAX 17.65 1386
    AVXL 3.61 6192

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank for the quick reply. Long NWBO holder and I believe big things are coming. Have a great holiday!

      Delete
  3. I want to know has the Northwest bio discolsed its phase 3 clincal data?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Not yet. However a peer reviewed journal article is forthcoming and expected very soon.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Another NWBO believer here. I sold off a large chunk early last year (big mistake, I think) and am now building back my position. Would love to read your thorough analysis sometime in the next month again

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Branko, thanks the information!

    What are your thoughts on the published data? How do they align with your model, and what are your thoughts going forward:

    Spring refresh - higher/lower mOS
    Unblinding date

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous!

      The published data turned out to be close to my expectations.

      I had estimated 25 mths mOS vs 23.1 for the Journal.
      For my modelling estimates I did not account for patient censoring so I expected the Journal data to be slightly lower than my estimates.

      I expect the Spring refresh data which will have the censored patients moved 12 months to the right, to show a higher mOS figure possibly similar to my 25 month estimate. And I expect the curve tail thickness, at 3 years, to increase also.
      Unfortunately the Journal data did not include the survival data at 4 and 5 years so I cannot compare the tail length survival numbers.

      The data from this year's Spring Refresh, I expect will show a DCVax-L blended survival curve that will begin by looking like Rintega's curve at the front and then it will look like Optune's tail.

      Unblinding date is an unknown, NWBO seemed careful to keep this information vague. I suspect November could be the date, 36 months from last patient enrolled but that's just my speculation.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete