Wednesday, April 27, 2016

My Neuren Pharma valuation model after their negative PH2 TBI results



This is Neuren's PH2 TBI results Press Release



Disclosure – NEU.AX is a very small AU/NZ biopharma company that carries substantial risk. While its potential returns may be high its losses may also be high.
I am long NEU.AX.
I do not short stocks.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU.AX) - Awaiting TBI Phase 2 results

Clinical results are now imminent for Neuren's Phase2 trial in TBI (Traumatic Brain Injury - moderate to severe). Positive results in this indication would significantly boost Neuren's market value. This indication has a large 1 million US & EU potential patient population and its without an FDA approved disruptive drug.

Below is my Valuation Model with assumptions. It shows NEU.AX undervalued by as much as 200%.


Last year, I wrote about Neuren's drug here.


This next slide is from Neuren's latest investor presentation:



The status of Neuren's second TBI trial (mild or concussion) has become uncertain. This latest investor presentation does not provide a program timeline update, results were expected in 2Q16. The presentation states enrollment is proving difficult and the trial is under review.



Disclosure – NEU.AX is a very small AU/NZ biopharma company that carries substantial risk. While its potential returns may be high its losses may also be high.
I am long NEU.AX.
I do not short stocks.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Argos Therapeutics (ARGS) - my price target is $19-$13

Below is my valuation model with assumptions – 


This is their 12 month chart -







This is their Phase3 ADAPT trial design -















Disclosure - ARGS is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund.
I do not short stocks.