ResApp Health (RAP.AX) - Not at its peak after a 1500% rise over the past 9 months

ResApp is a small Australian company developing an exciting iPhone App to detect respiratory disease.
This App aims to compete against today's respiratory disease diagnostic tools such as the stethoscope, imaging (x-ray/CT scan), blood and or sputum test.

I ran a Times Revenue Multiple valuation model for this stock using their research data and got a share price target of  $0.85 - $0.66. This presents an attractive over 150% upside from today's price.

Clinical results to date suggest this App has a very high chance of winning FDA approval. This App was able to correctly detect lower respiratory tract involvement in 97% of cases initially missed by experienced clinicians using a stethoscope. The App was also able to differentiate between viral and bacterial pneumonia with around 90% accuracy.

MD take-up of this new diagnostic tool will likely be modest since doctors have used the stethoscope for a very long time. However the uptake in the telehealth market will likely be very high. For my modeling I have given 10% market penetration by MDs and 80% by telehealth markets. 
Coming catalysts include an imminent telehealth partnership announcement, an initiation this quarter of a pivotal clinical study, and a FDA decision in Q4'16.
The risks with this investment include the potential for a similar App competitor to emerge.

Below are information slides from ResApp's last investor presentation:

This is ResApp's 12-month share price chart -

This investment should only be considered by risk adverse investors. Considering the already staggering share price increase large price retractions are possible.
My pricing model says there is still significant upside potential here.


Disclosure - I have no position in this stock but may initiate a long position in the coming weeks

Dipexium Pharmaceuticals (DPRX) - High likelihood of clinical success with big upside

Disclosure - I have no position but may initiate one before PH3 results

My CorMedix (CRMD) valuation model shows up to 160% upside

I have no position in CRMD but may open a long position.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals wins FDA approval and sets its drug price

The FDA has approved Nuplazid, Acadia atypical anti-psychotic drug for treating Parkinson's Disease Psychosis. Nuplazid is set for commercial launch in the US this June with a price tag of $1,950 per month.

In light of these recent developments I have updated my Acadia valuation. My new price target for ACAD is $48-$63 per share which presents over 100% upside.

I used the Times Revenue Multiple Valuation method.
Below is my model with assumptions:

I wrote about ACAD and its drug candidate back in April 2015.

I continue to view ACAD as an excellent long-term investment opportunity.



Disclosure - ACAD is a core holding of my Marketocracy Fund. I do not short stocks.

My Neuren Pharma valuation model after their negative PH2 TBI results

This is Neuren's PH2 TBI results Press Release



Disclosure – NEU.AX is a very small AU/NZ biopharma company that carries substantial risk. While its potential returns may be high its losses may also be high.
I am long NEU.AX.
I do not short stocks.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU.AX) - Awaiting TBI Phase 2 results

Clinical results are now imminent for Neuren's Phase2 trial in TBI (Traumatic Brain Injury - moderate to severe). Positive results in this indication would significantly boost Neuren's market value. This indication has a large 1 million US & EU potential patient population and its without an FDA approved disruptive drug.

Below is my Valuation Model with assumptions. It shows NEU.AX undervalued by as much as 200%.

Last year, I wrote about Neuren's drug here.


This next slide is from Neuren's latest investor presentation:

The status of Neuren's second TBI trial (mild or concussion) has become uncertain. This latest investor presentation does not provide a program timeline update, results were expected in 2Q16. The presentation states enrollment is proving difficult and the trial is under review.

Disclosure – NEU.AX is a very small AU/NZ biopharma company that carries substantial risk. While its potential returns may be high its losses may also be high.
I am long NEU.AX.
I do not short stocks.

Argos Therapeutics (ARGS) - my price target is $19-$13

Below is my valuation model with assumptions – 

This is their 12 month chart -

This is their Phase3 ADAPT trial design -

Disclosure - ARGS is a holding of my Marketocracy Fund.
I do not short stocks.