I have dramatically cut my price target of AVXL
to $8 from $83 after reviewing their Barcelona presentation.
The new PH2b data at 12weeks is very discouraging. The treatment’s ADCS-ADL score is 64 vs 67.2 at baseline. Even though this is a +3.21 point score improvement it appears unlikely to eventually show statistical significant. Also concerning is the fact MMSE scores are not shown at 12weeks. Both these efficacy measures are likely primary endpoints for pivotal AD trials. (Given the new data is immature (n=14) and the trial is not powered for significance)
I have changed my estimate for probability of clinical success to 4.0%.
Historically AD has proven very difficult to treat. Before this new data release I was much more optimistic about 2-73 estimating a 40% chance for
clinical success.The new PH2b data at 12weeks is very discouraging. The treatment’s ADCS-ADL score is 64 vs 67.2 at baseline. Even though this is a +3.21 point score improvement it appears unlikely to eventually show statistical significant. Also concerning is the fact MMSE scores are not shown at 12weeks. Both these efficacy measures are likely primary endpoints for pivotal AD trials. (Given the new data is immature (n=14) and the trial is not powered for significance)
I intend to follow AVXL’s trial progress. It is possible their trial data will improve as it matures or when we see separation between the dosages.
AVXL has tremendous upside potential but right now it chances of clinical success seem very low so it is a risky investment.
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